Prop Bet

Yo,

found out about prop bet in 2+2 180s thread. Rules are simple, the one, who has the most profit in November, wins. Each participant bets $500 and winner takes all, so far 6 people are in and 3 still have to make their decision.

It's gonna be tough to win it, but should give me lots of motivation to play a lot and do my best at the tables.

Will update how it's going in the mid of the month :)

Oh, btw, didn't ship Unibet Riga Open sat today, AKs < QQ. Hoping for a better run on Tuesday, if not, well there'll still be some time left to sat in ;)

Out for now, gl :)

Unibet Riga Open

Few days ago decided to take a shot and try winning myself a €2,500 Unibet Riga Open Main Event package. Since i want to start playing some live tournaments, this one seemed as a good place to start my career, cause it's quite close to my home (only 300km away).

There are various buy-in sattelites running, cheapest ones are freerolls with €0.5 or €0.25 rebuys. Here's all of them:

I've already played €110 final once, no luck :) Tho, today won €275 and €110 tickets(always starting at €2 or €4 rebuys) and so will have two more chances to win it soon :)

Made few deposits for a total of €260 and so far spent ~€180 of the them. Fields are really soft and small (there were 36 players in €110 Tuesday Final) which makes it quite easy to advance through steps(didn't get a ticket at €4 only once, because ran out of money for rebuys :D ). Had one super easy win @ €2 rebuy, it had 6 GTD tickets and only 6 people registered, so insta win lol.

Unibet has really annoying late reg system. If there are 10 players at the tournament (10max tables) and you late reg, table won't be split into two 5handed and 6handed tables, instead you will have to wait until someone busts out of the tournament so you can take his seat. Also, you can't unregister while you're waiting for a seat. I saw people late regging into rebuys at 200/100 blinds and being seated only at 1k/500 blinds with 3,000 chips lol.

Software is of course not the best either, takes ~10 seconds until the table loads, lobby doesn't have enough filters(like none at all, unless i can't find them). Also, i'm having troubles with HEM, can't get a HUD working without using "Table Finder" and even then, it sometimes doesn't show up for some players and for some there are two HUDs lol. But well, since i'm not playing many tables there, i'm fine with it :)

So, that's it for now. Follow me on twitter if you want fast updates on how i'm doing in weekly final sats(Sunday and Tuesday evenings) !

Good luck at the tables,
Ignas

Best day ever

Ok, this is worth a blogpost :D

That's how it looks :)


+$2280, 200 games, 4x1st @ 8s, 2x1st @ 3rs and 1x1st @ 15s, also 2nd and 3rd @ 15s.

Pretty damn awesome, huh? :D It's nice that my effort and hard work are finally paying off (lol, 2k doomswitch incoming? :D ). Hopefully will have more great days soon :)

Bankroll Management. Samples

   Hey guys(and girls in case any of you read :D )

Recently i remembered about nice forum post made by Pzhon (coach @ Pokerstrategy). It's about bankroll management mainly. Here's the link to it. I'll copy/paste it here and will add some of my own thoughts and a bit of explanations about math :) (Quoted text is in italics)

The bankroll you need depends on your ROI, which games you are playing, and your personal risk tolerance. A simple, consistent formula is 

Bankroll = (comfort x SD^2)/(win rate)

comfort is something which depends on your risk tolerance and your ability to move down in stakes if you hit a bad streak. A comfort level of 2 is generally considered aggressive. A comfort level of 4 is conservative. You can use the same comfort level across many forms of advantage gambling. One other meaning of the comfort level is that your instantaneous risk of ruin, your chance to go broke if you stay in your current game, is about 1/7^comfort.

SD = standard deviation measures how spread out the results are of each tournament. For single table tournaments, this does not depend much on your playing style. In a 50-30-20 structure, your standard deviation is going to be about 145%-155% of a buy-in. In larger tournaments, the standard deviation is larger, and it becomes more sensitive to your playing style and how much you win. In a 45-player tournament, the standard deviation may be 280%-330% of a buy-in. In a 180 player tournament, the standard deviation may be 500%-800% of a buy-in.

Your win rate should be expressed in the same units as the standard deviation, say in buy-ins. You can include rakeback and bonuses. If you regularly take money out of your bankroll, then you should reduce your win rate by these withdrawals. 

For example, if you use a target comfort level of 3, and you have an ROI of 5% in STTs, then you should have a bankroll of 3 x 1.55^2 / 0.05 = 144 buy-ins. With the same level of risk tolerance and in the same games, if your ROI is 10%, then you only need 72 buy-ins. If you have an ROI of 40% in 180 player tournaments with a standard deviation of 6 buy-ins, then you should have 3 x 6^2 / 0.40 = 270 buy-ins. MTT buy-ins are much easier to lose than STT buy-ins.

If your bankroll falls to below the target bankroll, that is ok, you don't have to move down immediately. However, if your bankroll falls to less than half of the target amount, then you should move down. Playing with less than half of the target bankroll means that playing should be viewed as an expense. 

Well, i don't have what to add about BRM, but here's some things about sample sizes:

It is normal not to know exactly what your ROI is. You can make tentative calculations, and update them as you get more information. A rough 95% confidence interval for your ROI after n tournaments is your observed ROI +- 2 SD / Sqrt(n)(2.6*SD/Sqrt(n) for 99% confidence interval and 3.1*SD/sqrt(n) for 99.8% confidence interval). You might want to play enough that this confidence interval does not include 0 before moving up. Be prepared to drop down again if you do not have good results at the higher level. 

Some of you might not understand what 95% confidence interval(CI) means, so i'll try to explain it. Let's say that we have played 1,000 games and we find our 95% CI. This means that in 95% of 1,000 games sessions our ROI will be in that interval. Quite simple, huh? :D (Ofc, don't hesitate to ask if i made it unclear to you :) )

So, now let's look at some examples. I'd also like to note that because it's difficult to know your exact SD in 45s/180s, i'll just use the average of provided SDs (so, 305% for 45s and 650% for 180s).

Let's start with 45mans.

Well, let's say that we have 10% ROI(which is not really decent, but pretty good) after 3,000 games. So, to find our 95% CI, we have to calculate 2*SD/Sqrt(n), which is 2*305%/Sqrt(3,000)=11.1% Oh wow, so 95% CI of our ROI is 10%+-11.1% or [-1.1%, 21.1%] Well, that's quite large interval and our real ROI for sure can be really different from our current 10%.

Let's see what's our 99.8% CI with same sample and ROI. 

3.1*305%/Sqrt(3,000) = 17.3%  now it's really huge, 10%+-17.3% or [-7.3%, 27.3%] is a damn big interval so our sample size is damn small.

Now, let's find out what sample size would be pretty good, i'd say it's quite good if the interval is going to be ROI+-2%. I'll use 95% CI here

2*305%/Sqrt(n)=2%

610%/2%=Sqrt(n)

305%=Sqrt(n)

n = 305^2 = 93,025  Well, you can see that it's a damn huge sample size and i guess no one has it. 

Few more examples:

95% CI after 3,000 games is going to be ROI+-11.1% 

95% CI after 10,000 games is ROI+-6.1%

95% CI after 50,000 games is ROI+-2.73%

What about 180s? I'll provide only results without calculations, cause math is the same only SDs differs :)

95% CI after 3,000 games is going to be ROI+-24% 

95% CI after 10,000 games is ROI+-13%

95% CI after 50,000 games is ROI+-5.8%

Here's a real life example:

Username	Games Played	Av. Profit	Av. Stake	Av. ROI	Total Profit	Form	Ability /100	Network	Filter
Bigniux	11,093	$1.5	$9	17%	$16,690	LLLLLLLL	N/A	PokerStars	E180-180 S5-15	x

95% CI is going to be 17%+-12.3% or between ~5% and ~29% which is well, quite huge but maths prove that i'm at least small winner most likely :)

So, to conclude, i'll just say that you should make your own conclusions from the numbers :D Try not to underestimate variance and don't take your results for granted, unless you have huge sample :)

Good luck at the tables,

Ignas ;)

Recap

Well, that's how i'm doing since Sept 5th, not happy with my volume obv, but it's better this month :) 145 games are 45mans (+~$170), the rest are 180s(3r,8s and 15s). Kinda long b/e stretch, but i'm feeling good and not too worried about it, can't wait for some good variance tho :D

Blog title

Just got an idea for a bit better blog title after reading whyme's blog post :) thx for idea, whyme :D

Shopping

     Currently that's my favorite song, turn it on and chill while you're reading further ;) It's one of those kinda romantic songs, but i like them, esp since it's not sad, so i can just relax while listening :) Oh, and also you might want to check out my favorite internet radio here. Love it, lots of great songs(german radio, but german songs are really rare). Wonder what you might hear there? Well, lots of popular new songs (and some remixes of older ones), artists such as David Guetta, LMFAO, Flo-Rida, Bruno Mars, Taio Cruz, Chris Brown, Katy Perry, Kesha, etc.... They also play some house tracks(i think it's house, always have trouble with correct genres :D ) and some other genres too. Another thing i love about it is that i hear new tracks way before they hit local radio stations, best example i have is with "Dj Antoine vs Timati feat. Kalenna - Welcome to St. Tropez (DJ Antoine vs Mad Mark Remix)". It took over a month until local radio stations started playing it since i heard it on that radio. Of course, i think that people from Mid/South Europe won't have such delays, since i'm living in pretty much "third" country. Ok, but enough about music, let's get back to topic.


     Went out for shopping yesterday, didn't have much time + got stuck in traffic jam (10min drive turned into 35min lol  :f_confused: ), still managed to buy most of the stuff i needed.

A wallet, nothing fancy and really cheap (~$20), i always love stuff with good brands and usually avoid cheapish, but this doesn't even have a brand, i mean, not even something attached saying who made it :D only some paper saying that it's "leather wallet"  :f_biggrin: probs would have gotten something similar from stars, only with stars logo and 4x more expensive haha

Ran out of perfume recently, ofc, i'm not expert, but luckily nice girl helped me out and made my decision pretty fast, took these:

damn cool bottle, love it :D searched for some info and scent consists of lemon, cedar and amber(wtf, does it even smell?  :f_confused: ). Probs doesn't say you much, uh? Wouldn't to me either  :f_biggrin: but i like them :)

And well, i finally bought a watch! Just checked my blog and i was planning to buy it 8 months ago haha. Here it is:

looks great(better irl than in pic :) ), just need to shorten bracelet so i can start wearing it :)

also bought sweatshirt, so pretty much all i need now is few jeans and a nice sweater(damn, that's gonna take long till i find those i guess, gotta take a girl next time i go shopping  :f_biggrin: )

Oh, and i saw really nice Nike shoes today, but my fuckin foot is small and there wasn't my size in that shop, but shop assistant told me that there's one pair of almost my size at other shop, so gonna take a look soon and hopefully get 'em :)

Figured out that i need a new phone too, smartphone obv, the choice is pretty much between iPhone and Samsung Galaxy S2. Would pretty much snap iPhone, but the problem is that i would need to change my mobile operator to one who's prices are fuckin big, after i left them, i'm paying ~3x less/month for pretty much same amount of service usage lol. While i could get Galaxy really cheap at my current operator with a pretty good deal for services. Tho, i wonder if they will start selling iPhones soon, so i'm kinda unsure what to do now, probably will buy Galaxy some time soon and will wait for iPhone 5 next year and switch if i won't fall in love with S2 :) any opinions on these phones? maybe someone tried both and could give a decent opinion on both?

Out for now, gl everyone,
Bigs

Deep run. PC games

    Hey all, 

decided to play few MTTs on Sunday, didn't play as much as planned, cause got kinda bored only 2-3 hours in a session lol, after all 180s finished and busted all but one MTT, got left with a great stack at Bigger $11, so well, just opened "Rage" (PC game) in windowed mode and played the game while 1tabling :D Played quite strange, felt as i'm not trying to run over opps and thought that i'm playing tight, but my stats were showing 30/24 and that didn't change for over 200 hands lol, i guess it's not that tight for FR table :D ofc, bluffed few times, here's one of them:

$900/$1800 Ante $225 No Limit Holdem • 9 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	the_thorpdeo	$78,598
UTG+1	eklektos11	$76,477
MP1	panoramix3	$49,051
MP2	perevozchik	$54,618
MP3	s73f4n	$23,774
CO	Bigniux	$55,342
BTN	mcandrews3rd	$104,263
SB	mrato699	$40,847
BB	Nebelsurfer	$212,857

• Pre-Flop ($4,725, 9 players)Hero is CO
• 

the_thorpdeo raises to $3,780, eklektos11 calls $3,780, 3 folds, Bigniux calls $3,780, 3 folds

• Flop ($16,065, 3 players)
• 

the_thorpdeo checks, eklektos11 checks, Bigniux bets $8,750, the_thorpdeo folds, eklektos11 raises to $17,500, Bigniux goes all-in $51,337, eklektos11 folds

• Final Pot: $84,902

• Bigniux shows
• 

• Bigniux wins $76,152 (net +$20,810)
• the_thorpdeo lost $4,005
• eklektos11 lost $21,505

Pretty easy imo, UTG was a nit, so decided to flat. When he checks this flop 3way, i'm pretty sure he doesn't have anything (well, maybe 99-QQ, but i can bluff those off) and i couldn't think of a hand that agrro UTG+1 could play this way, basically it's a spot where i'm FOS and probs he knows that, combine it with the fact that we both were agrro and it looks like a nice ch/r, but not against someone who can think(me :D ).

And here's the key hand that i lost deep in a game, few hands later i ran T6s into KK and busted 39th for $299 :(

$18k/$35k Ante $4.4k No Limit Holdem • 8 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	bkmzee	$1,904k
UTG+1	mig121	$2,991k
MP1	Janush Poha	$382k
MP2	bucknuck303	$406k
CO	artic91	$1,461k
BTN	WRXST1	$1,419k
SB	LillaLejonet	$1,712k
BB	Bigniux	$1,711k

• Pre-Flop ($88k, 8 players)Hero is BB
• 

1 fold, mig121 raises to $77k, 3 folds, WRXST1 calls $77k, 1 fold, Bigniux calls $42k

Main Pot : ($249k)

Bigniux		29.90%	-$2698.50
WRXST1		70.10%	$97198.50

• Flop ($284k, 3 players)
• 

Bigniux checks, mig121 bets $105k, WRXST1 calls $105k, Bigniux raises to $345k, mig121 folds, WRXST1 calls $240k

Main Pot : ($1,044k)

Bigniux		49.40%	$170489.00
WRXST1		50.60%	$183011.00

• Turn ($1,079k, 2 players)
• 

Bigniux bets $447k, WRXST1 goes all-in $993k, Bigniux calls $546k

Main Pot : ($3,029k)

Bigniux		31.80%	-$29471.94
WRXST1		68.20%	$1072971.94

• River ($3,064k, 2 players, 1 all-in)
• 

Main Pot : ($3,029k)

Bigniux		0.00%	$0.00
WRXST1		100.00%	$3028692.00

• Final Pot: $3,064k

• Bigniux shows
• 

• WRXST1 shows
• 

• WRXST1 wins $3,064k (net +$1,645k)
• Bigniux lost $1,419k
• mig121 lost $186k

Oh well, shit happens :D


It's quite annoying to feel that i might not accomplish 4,000 games goal...again. Had such a great start, in 4 days (Oct 2nd-5th) played 1,000 games, thought that i'll easily hit my goal, but next 5 days really suck, 200 games lol. Kinda have to blame PC games for that, specifically "Rage". Loved it, but well, should have just finished it in 2-3 days instead of playing few hours each evening and not playing poker :(
There are 4 more games coming out in next 5 weeks:

Stronghold 3 (Oct 25th): Well, probs won't spend too much time playing it, but will for sure try it out.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (Nov 8th): For sure gonna finish campaign, luckily it's usually short so depending on release hour, shouldn't spend more than 1 day on it!

Assasin's Creed: Revelations (Nov 15th): Damn, i love this game soooo much. Last release took me 20 hours(played that much in 48 hours i think, lol nolifer) to complete campaign, well could do faster, but sometimes need to complete side missions to earn some $ :D I wouldn't expect to be shorter this time either, so -3 more days.

Need for Speed: The Run (Nov 18th): Hmm, wonder how much of it i'll play, usually i get annoyed pretty fast, cause i really don't like them, not as interesting as NFSU(2) used to be :) so this shouldn't affect my poker time much :)

Well, gotta hope for the best and hopefully i'll manage to put poker > PC Games :D I don't think that it's bad to play them, but more important things should be my priority :)

That's it for today, good luck at the tables ;)

Ignas

Intro!

      Hello all, 

most of you probably know me, but it's standard to right introduction at the start :D 

      My name is Ignas, i'm 21 year old professional poker player from a small country, Lithuania (Eastern Europe, check map on the right :D ).

Usually, people of my age are studying at universities, but year ago i made a decision to quit it, because i wasn't really interested and my results were really bad. Was studying econometric (maths+economics+statistics+IT), it's actually great subject and most likely i'll start at it again next year, but that's different story, let's get back to poker :)

Long time ago i knew that there's such a game played for real money, named "Poker", but have never tried it and even seen how it's played until, in 2008, i got a poker chip set as a Christmas present from my parents. I started searching for game rules on the internet and found that it can be played online. Of course, why should i wait till i can play it with friends if i can just do it now. I don't remember what was my first site, but after some time playing for play money, i found out about "no deposit" bonuses and this led me to Pokerstrategy.com where i got free $50 at FTP. For obvious reasons, it didn't take very long till i lost it :D With some other bonuses i played for ~ 2 months and then, when i couldn't find any, i just quit.

It took almost a year when i started playing again(2010 February) and decided to learn it seriously. Started out with freerolls, won few $ there and it was enough for long 5 months where my bankroll never passed $150 mark (busted multiple times, but was lucky enough to rebuild after i get rakeback payment :D ). In the mid of summer, decided to deposit 30$ on FTP and learn how to crush turbo 9mans. Again, i busted in ~ 1 month.

Right before busting at FTP, i remembered that Pokerstars have cheap($0.01-$0.25) MT Sngs, didn't have much money back then, so started with only $11. I already had some knowledge(well, that's what small winners at micros know, so not much :D ) and with some huge luck, made around $1,000 in one month. Felt like i'm living a dream, had never made sooo much money in such a short time. But well, because of my low skill-level i breakeven'd next 3 months...

After my hot run, i joined SitnGoGrinders.com, that helped a bit, but most importantly, i found out about SngProtege.com there. Was lucky enough to be accepted and started out at $2.2 180mans with Matt as my coach. Breakeven'd another month, while was getting better and then it started. My volume jumped up 3 times and i started crushing. It took me only 3,5 months to finish the deal (8,000 games) with a total profit being close to $20,000. I learned sooooo much in those months AND i became really, i mean realllyyyy, greedy. Started taking a lot of shots at $100-200 MTTs, trying to hit a big score, while in same time my MT-Sng game devolved which led me to ~$8,000 "downswing" overall. Tried to recover the loses playing 180s only, but still didn't get my game back and so decided to have a break for 2 months and have a great summer :)

Now, the summer is over, i have signed another deal with SngProtege.com and my game is great again. Of course, there are some things i need to work on, but it will never change, cause there's always room for improvement :) I'm so grateful to Matt for the opportunity to learn. God, that really changed my life. Even tho, i still live with parents, but now i have a substantial income source and i could just as easily live on my own :)

So, that's how my short career looks like, not a very impressive story, but it's really nice to know that i already achieved something :)

Oh, and you'll probably ask "what's the dream?", here it is:

Not M5 most likely, but i'm looking at 535 :)

Cheers,
Bigniux